Nfl Home Underdogs Ats History
Since 1980, NFL home underdogs have gone 1374-1289-74 ATS. Excluding those 74 pushes, that’s a win percentage of 52.0%. Based on 10% juice, it takes an approximately 52.4% ATS win percentage in order to yield a profit. Nevertheless, picking optimum spots to wager on NFL home underdogs can be a lucrative venture over the long haul. Let’s explore some of those winning formulas.
NFL Winning Teams as Home Dogs
As I just alluded to, since 1980, there’s been 2737 games that involved NFL home underdogs. However, only 495 (18.1%) of those teams had a winning record at that particular time. Furthermore, only 151 of those 495 situations occurred after game 8. Over that precise course of time, and excluding pushes,NFL home underdogs playing after game 8 of their seasons went a very profitable 135-100 ATS (57.4%).
Let’s take this NFL handicapping process even one step further. During the exact aforementioned period of time, NFL home underdogs with a winning record after 8 games, and they’re coming off a loss in their previous contest, improved to an outstanding 60-33 ATS (64.1%).
Additionally, if those losses came by 10 points or more, those NFL home underdogs went a superb 33-13 ATS (71.7%) throughout that 36-year stretch. Hypothetically, by wagering $100 a game on those 46 home dogs, it would’ve netted you a profit of $1870.
NFL Postseason Home Underdogs
Excluding Super Bowls, there’s been 340 playoff games played since 1980. During that period, there’s been a miniscule 39 times (11.5%)in which the playoff home team was installed as an underdog. Those 39 teams went an enormously successful 26-13 ATS (66.7%), and won straight up on 21 separate occasions.
2016 Home Underdogs
As of this writing (9/23), NFL home underdogs are 8-3 ATS (72.7%) so far this season, and won straight up on 6 of those 11 instances. These results are illustrated in the chart below.
|Date||Home Underdog||Opponent||Final Score||ATS|
|9/8/16||Denver +3.0||Carolina||Denver 21 Carolina 20||W|
|9/11/16||Jacksonville +4.5||Green Bay||Green Bay 27 Jacksonville 23||W|
|9/11/16||NY Jets +1.0||Cincinnati||Cincinnati 20 NY Jets 19||W|
|9/11/16||Tennessee +2.5||Minnesota||Minnesota 25 Tennessee 16||L|
|9/12/16||Washington +2.5||Pittsburgh||Pittsburgh 38 Washington 16||L|
|9/12/16||San Francisco +2.5||Los Angeles||San Francisco 28 Los Angeles 0||W|
|9/18/16||Cleveland +4.0||Baltimore||Baltimore 25 Cleveland 20||L|
|9/18/16||Houston +1.0||Kansas City||Houston 19 Kansas City 12||W|
|9/18/16||Los Angeles +5.5||Seattle||Los Angeles 9 Seattle 3||W|
|9/18/16||Minnesota +1.5||Green Bay||Minnesota 17 Green Bay 14||W|
|9/22/16||New England +1.5||Houston||New England 27 Houston 0||W|
Pertaining to Sunday’s (9/25) card, NFL betting odds indicate that Philadelphia is a 3.5-point home underdog versus Pittsburgh, and Buffalo is a 3.5-point home underdog against Arizona.